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Before each round of the NHL Playoffs, I crunch a few basic numbers and come up with an expected goals for and against for each team, based on shot differentials and save percentages. In the first round, the team with the higher expected goals, using these calculations, won seven of the eight series, with the Los Angeles Kings win over the St. Louis Blues upsetting the bid for perfection. Since Im the first one to emphasize that overall statistics (or standings) are not necessarily representative of the current value for a team, especially with respect to injuries, these statistics merely provide a baseline for the series, perhaps providing an idea what a team needs to do in order to emerge victorious. In some cases, teams will simply need to keep doing what theyve been doing throughout the regular season; in others, they might need better goaltending, or fewer shots against, or more shots for -- just something -- to provide better expected results in a seven-game series. The calculations below are simple and the expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season and splitting the difference. So, Chicago has 31.4 shots on goal per game through the regular season and first round of the playoffs and Detroit has allowed 28.1 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers is 29.8 shots, so thats the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 31.4 26.4 Corey Crawford 0.930 16.45 Detroit 30.2 28.1 Jimmy Howard 0.921 13.87 Verdict: Naturally, the top-seeded Blackhawks are favoured and something will have to go differently for the Red Wings to pull off the upset. That hardly means it cant happen however. If Jimmy Howard outplays Corey Crawford in goal, that could be enough to swing the difference. If Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg raise their games and are more productive than Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, for example, that could be enough. Chicago might have more quality scoring options, but thats to be expected from the top seed and its why they are likely to win. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 29.3 25.5 Jonathan Quick 0.909 15.36 San Jose 32.2 29.2 Antti Niemi 0.925 18.38 Verdict: Jonathan Quick may ruin this model. He played very well (.944 SV%) in the first round after a subpar regular season. Should there be some concern that the Kings were outshot by 4.7 shots per game in Round One against St. Louis? Probably. The Blues play a stifling defensive style, thats a given, but the Kings didnt win the territorial battle as they did in the regular season while facing a Blues team that is the furthest thing from explosive offensively. From San Joses perspective, they capitalized on power plays against Vancouver in Round One, scoring seven goals with the man advantage in four games. If the Sharks and Kings trade a similar number of chances, Niemi has been the steadier goalie over the full 2013 season but, if Quick is on, he can easily overcome these expectations. Hes done it against St. Louis in each of the last two seasons (two series in which the Kings werent given the edge) already. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 29.8 29.6 Tomas Vokoun 0.928 12.27 Ottawa 32.9 31.7 Craig Anderson 0.943 15.75 Verdict: Pittsburgh has such skill, and a potent power play (7-for-21 in Round One) that they finish a relatively high percentage of their shots on goal, a playoff-leading 15.0% in the first round (Ottawa was second at 13.0%). This after the Penguins finished second in the regular season (11.3%), when Ottawa ranked last (7.0%). Part of the reason that I havent included team shooting percentages in these calculations is that, at the team level, its very difficult (if not impossible) to sustain any shooting percentage that is far removed from the average and there are so many moving parts to a lineup that its hard to gauge the effect on percentages on a team level. Using goaltender save percentages is a different matter, however, since there is, ideally, one goaltender being used. So, what we have in this series is a Penguins team that needs to maintain high shooting percentages and needs success on the power play to do so. On the other hand, a big reason why the Senators have enjoyed success this season is the play of Craig Anderson. Can Anderson continue stopping more than 94% of the shots he faces? That may be just as unrealistic as expecting the Penguins to score on 15% of their shots, as they did against the Islanders. Any team that gets goaltending at that level is going to be incredibly difficult to beat, but especially so if they also win the shot differential battle and the Penguins were outshot by 5.0 per game against the Islanders. Essentially, the Penguins deserve to be favoured, but these numbers do indicate that there is reason to like the Senators chances nonetheless. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 33.2 29.2 Tuukka Rask 0.928 15.38 N.Y. Rangers 30.7 28.7 Henrik Lundqvist 0.929 15.09 Verdict: Bostons expected shot differential, which has been a team strength for several seasons now, could take a hit if their defence doesnt get healthy. They survived the first round against Toronto with Andrew Ference and Dennis Seidenberg hurt late in the series, but thats no way to match up with the Rangers in the second round. Both goaltenders have been very good this season. While Lundqvist has a longer track record that might give him the edge, it would hardly come as a shock to have Rask match him save for save, given their performance over the last few seasons. These numbers suggest a slight edge to Boston, but slight enough that personnel differences (ie. injuries) could alter the expected outcome. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Stitched Orioles Jerseys . The players spoke Jan. 13 during a Major League Baseball Players Association conference call after Rodriguez sued the union and Major League Baseball to overturn an arbitrators decision suspending him for the 2014 season and post-season. Orioles Jerseys China . According to a report from the Winnipeg Free Press, the Bombers will name Acting GM Kyle Walters to the post full time. https://www.cheaporioles.com/ . Bjorn, who had a 36-hole total of 8-under 134, made a testing six-foot putt to save par on the 16th and a birdie on the 17th before bogeying the final hole after a misjudged approach shot. American Kevin Streelman was in second place after shooting a 69. Baltimore Orioles Gear . Mitch Holmberg added a goal and three assists. Connor Chartier also scored for the Chiefs (3-0-0). Luke Harrison spoiled Garrett Hughsons shutout bid with a power-play goal at 13:17 of the third period. The Spokane goaltender finished with 28 saves, including a Brandon Fushimi penalty shot in the second period that would have tied the game 1-1. Baltimore Orioles Store . R.J. Umberger scored twice to lead the Blue Jackets to a franchise-record for consecutive wins with a 5-3 victory Tuesday night over the Los Angeles Kings. Sri Lanka A 386 (Karunaratne 131, Perera 87, Cornwall 8-108) and 67 for 3 (Karunaratne 39*, Joseph 2-17) beat West Indies A 276 (Singh 96, Gunaratne 3-27) and 175 (Sandakan 4-51) by 7 wicketsScorecard and ball-by-ball details First-innings centurion Dimuth Karunaratne scored an unbeaten 39 to guide Sri Lanka A to a seven-wicket win over West Indies A in the first match of West Indies As tour of Sri Lanka. After taking the last wicket to bowl out West Indies A for 175, Sri Lanka A knocked off the 66-run target in 20.3 overs.The day began with West Indies A on an overnight score of 165-9 and a lead of 55. They added only ten more runs before Lakshan Sandakan picked up his fourth wicket, getting No.dddddddddddd 11 Reynard Leveridge stumped. Keon Joseph, who had resisted with Gudakesh Moti-Kanhai in a ninth-wicket stand the previous evening, remained unbeaten on 12 off 73 balls.Lahiru Thirimanne, who had played his last Test in June, was promoted to open with Karunaratne. He scored 21 in a 43-run opening stand, before Rahkeem Cornwall trapped in him in front.Fast-bowler Joseph removed Roshen Silva in the following over and Charith Asalanka shortly after. But Sri Lanka A were never in any danger as Niroshan Dickwella joined Karunaratne to see them through. ' ' '